2014 World Junior Hockey Championship – Group A Preview

TEAM CANADA

Last Year:  Team Canada, used to winning Gold Medals, extended their gold medal drought to 4 tournaments.  The last time Canada wore Gold around their necks was in Ottawa in 2009,  They failed to medal in 2013, finishing a very disappointing 4th in a year where they had access to all their best players due to the NHL lockout.

Returning Players:  F Jonathan Drouin,F Charles Hudon (selected but missed tournament due to injury), D Griffin Reinhart, G Jake Paterson (selected as 3rd goalie last season but did not play)

Key Missing NHL players:  Nathan MacKinnon, Sean Monahan, Tom Wilson, Morgan Rielly

Ottawa Interests:  F Curtis Lazar was Ottawa’s 1st round pick in the 2013 NHL draft.

Key Players:  F – Drouin should be among the tournament leaders in scoring for Canada to be in gold medal contention.  D – Matthew Dumba was released by the Minnesota Wild, the only current NHLer  made available.  G- Paterson seems to be the opening night starter and coach Brent Sutter likes to run with one goalie.

Draft Watch:  Connor McDavid is considered the front runner for the 2015 NHL draft, while Sam Reinhart and D Aaron Ekblad are considered the 1-2 prospects for next summer’s NHL draft.

Key To Victory:  Brent Sutter has won Gold twice as the head coach for Team Canada.  In 2005, during the previous NHL lockout, he had control of the “Dream Team” that many felt would win gold with no coaching.  However, Sutter made sure they had the right direction to bring home gold.  Sutter then guided the 2006 edition of Team Canada to a Gold in Vancouver, a unit that was not expected to win with almost a completely turned over roster.  Sutter has never lost a game behind the Team Canada bench.

Projected Round Robin Finish:  The first and second spots in Group A will come down to the New Year’s Eve matchup between Canada and the USA.  Whoever wins that game will be first in the group and get the easier Quarterfinal Matchup

Potential Finish:  Canada has the pieces in place to be in the Gold Medal game, but it will take a good all-around team effort because goals will be hard to come by for this group in games against the tougher teams.  Should medal, but the question is, what Color?

U.S.A

Last Year:  After a bold pre-tournament statement from 18 year old defenseman Seth Jones, team USA went out and backed it up, winning the Gold Medal for the second time in 4 years.  They beat Sweden in the final.

Returning Players:  F Riley Barber, F Ryan Hartman, G John Gillies

Key Missing NHL players:  Seth Jones, Jacob Trouba, Alex Galchenyuk

Ottawa Interests:  F Quentin Shore was Ottawa’s 6th round pick in the 2013 NHL draft

Key Players:  F – Captain Riley Barber had 3 goals and 6 points in last year’s tournament.    D – Ian McCoshen was the first pick of the second round of the 2013 Draft (Florida Panthers)  G- Gillies played one period last year, while Thatcher Demko is the top ranked goalie for next summer’s draft.

Draft Watch:  Jack Eichel is considered Connor McDavid’s top competition for the #1 pick in 2015.  Demko is the only 2014 draft eligible player.

Key To Victory:  This is an older team, with 22 of the 24 players having already been drafted by NHL clubs.  They lack the star power of last year’s version but the USA Hockey program has begun to develop a system where they will compete at the top level every year.

Projected Round Robin Finish:  The New Year’s eve battle with Canada will mean the difference between first and second in the group and likely the difference between playing the Swiss in the quarterfinal if they finish 1st or having to face the pesky Finns or talented Russians if they finish 2nd

Potential Finish:  The USA should be in the top 4, and play for a medal.  I don’t think they are in the same league as the Swedes or the Canadians, but if they can win that New Year’s Eve game it could pave an easier road for them to slip into the gold medal game.  They will likely finish3rd or 4th.

CZECH REPUBLIC

Last Year: The Czech Republic finished 2nd in their pool last season, but had the unenviable task of facing the constantly improving USA in the quarterfinal, getting pounded 7-0 in that game before beating Switzerland in the 5th place game.

Returning Players:  D Petr Sidlik, Jan Stencil, F Jakub Vrana, Radek Faksa, Vojtech Tomecek

Key Missing NHL players:  none

Ottawa Interests:  none

Key Players:  F – Faksa didn’t have a great tournament last year as an 18 year old (2 assists) but should be a leader for the Czechs as a 19 year old.  D – Sidlik is a small but slick defenseman who plays in the Quebec league so he can play a rugged style and is not afraid to mix it up physically  G- Marek Langhamer is a Phoenix draft pick, but all goalies will be seeing their first WJHC action.

Draft Watch: David Pastrnak and Jakub Vrana are possible first round picks, but not among the elite prospects for the 2014 draft.

Key To Victory:  The Czech Republic are not among the elite teams, nor are they expected to face relegation.  They are in that group that are competitive but lack the top end depth to really contend for a medal.  For them to get to that point, they will have to surprise either Canada or the USA with stellar goaltending and smothering defense.

Projected Round Robin Finish:  The Czechs should be the third best team in the group, but will battle with the Germans and Slovaks to keep out of the relegation round.

Potential Finish:  They simply don’t have the firepower to compete with the elite teams, and will likely face a tough quarterfinal against either the Russians, Finns or maybe even the Swedes.  Likely ticketed for the 5th-8th slot.

SLOVAKIA

Slovakia

Last Year: Slovakia failed to win a game in regulation last year, finishing 4th in their pool and missing out on the playoffs.  They avoided relegation by beating Latvia in that round but fell to Finland to finish classified in the 8th position.

Returning Players:  F Marko Dano, F Martin Reway, F Milan Kolena, D Richard Buri, D Patrik Luza, D Tomas Rusina, G Richard Sabol

Key Missing NHL players:  none

Ottawa Interests:  Reway plays for the Gatineau Olympiques of the QMJHL

Key Players:  F – Dano is in his third World Juniors, and also played for Slovakia at the World Championship last year.  D – Richard Buri is a 6’5″, 210 lbs defender who has been playing in the USHL this season.  G- Sabol was with the team for  last year’s tournament but didn’t play.

Draft Watch: The Slovaks will have 4 potential picks in the upcoming draft, but none are expected to be top round picks – G Maximilian Pajpach, F Patrik Koys, F Robert Lantosi and F Pavol Skalicky.  They could also ice 2 players who aren’t eligible until the 2015 draft.

Key To Victory:  Slovakia will likely have less than a handful of NHL draftees in its lineup.  Their biggest advantage year after year tends to be familiarity , with most of their players playing on the same club team during the season.  That, plus the influx of the better players like Reway, Dano and Buri should solidify the lineup, but they are still in tough.

Projected Round Robin Finish:  This could be the year that the Slovaks face relegation, with a pretty strong German side that should compete to get a quarterfinal spot. Still, the Slovaks should have enough to finish 4th in the group.

Potential Finish:   A quarterfinal appearance might have to be good enough, as a 4th place finish in the group virtually assures them of being fodder for the host Swedes in the first elimination round.

GERMANY

Last Year: Germany finished in 9th place last year, narrowly avoiding relegation with a 5-32win over Latvia in a game that decided who would stay in the top group and who would move down to the second tier.

Returning Players: F Leon Draisaitl, F Frederik Tiffels, F Dominik Kahun, G Marvin Cupper

Key Missing NHL players:  none

Ottawa Interests:

Key Players:  F – Draisaitl was dominant for his club last year, and the major reason Germany was not relegated, with 6 points in 6 games.  D – Tim Bender is the only blueliner playing in North America, with the London Knights.  G- Cupper played in 5 of the 6 games last year and will play a bulk of the games again.

Draft Watch: Draisaitl will be a top 10 pick in the 2014 NHL draft, ad as he goes so will the Germans.

Key To Victory:  The Germans will fight to avoid relegation for the second year in a row.  They do not have the depth to compete with the big boys, but Draisaitl is worth watching whenever he is on the ice, because he is so far above the rest of the level of his team.

Projected Round Robin Finish: The game between Slovakia and Germany will likely determine who will face the Danes in the best of 3 relegation round.

Potential Finish:  Draisaitl might just be enough to get the Germans into a quarterfinal berth, but at the very least he will keep the club in the top group for another year.

PROJECTED GROUP A STANDINGS

1. Canada

2. USA

3. Czech Republic

4. Slovakia

5.  Germany

Please check out my GROUP B Preview.