What Canadian Club Will Break The Stanley Cup Drought?

It is now 20 years since a Canadian-based team has lifted the Stanly Cup.  It was 1993 when the Montreal Canadiens capped a Cinderella run and defeated Wayne Gretzky and the Los Angeles Kings in the Finals.  Since then, the Canucks, Oilers, Flames and Senators have all made runs to the finals only to fall short.

This drought is getting ridiculous, and since just under 1/4 of the NHL teams are based in Canada, it should stand to reason that at least one of the teams from the North should have won a Cup by now.  Its just the law of probabilities.  Twelve different American based teams have won the Cup since the Habs, led by the Red Wings with 4 and the Devils with 3.

While there has been a ton of Canadian content on each and every one of those Stanley Cup winning teams, the nation is impatiently waiting for the Cup to come home where it belongs.

Here is my own personal handicapping of the chances of each Canadian club to be the team to bring it back.

CALGARY FLAMES

Apr 21, 2013; St. Paul, MN, USA; Calgary Flames forward Ben Street (38) laughs with defenseman Mark Cundari (42) following the game against the Minnesota Wild at the Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The Flames are about to embark on a serious rebuilding program after trading captain Jarome Iginla at the deadline and losing franchise goalie Miikka Kiprusoff to retirement.  Even with their two aging stars, the Flames were not a playoff team, and now they are at least 5 years from being a true contender, if they make the right moves. If the Flames are the next Canadian team to hoist the Cup, then the drought will have reached at least the quarter century mark.

ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT:  5%

WINNIPEG JETS

Apr 22, 2013; Buffalo, NY, USA; Winnipeg Jets head coach Claude Noel on the bench during the game against the Buffalo Sabres at the First Niagara Center. The Jets beat the Sabres 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

The franchise has only made the playoffs once (when they were in Atlanta), and now the shift to a new conference won’t make things a whole lot easier.  They are still lacking that true marquee player, although they have quietly built a team that is no pushover with talented players like Evander Kane and Dustin Byfuglien.  They are still a couple of years away from making some noise, however.

ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT:  7%

EDMONTON OILERS

Apr 26, 2013; St. Paul, MN, USA; Edmonton Oilers forward Taylor Hall (4) smiles with forward Taylor Yakupov (64) after a goal during the second period against the Minnesota Wild at the Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

At some point soon the Oilers will make the move from young up-and-coming team to a team to contend with.  The core of the team is intact and has grown together for the last couple of years.  They could have a breakout at any time, but first they need to shore up the blue line just a little bit more.

ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT:  15%

MONTREAL CANADIENS

May 9, 2013; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens team cheer after loosing against Ottawa Senators in game five of the first round of the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports

In the past two seasons the Habs have finished 15th in the East, and then 2nd in the East.  Who are the true Montreal Canadiens?  They are still a smallish team that has their key players relying too much on the power play.  I think they will settle down somewhere in the middle and be a contender for a playoff spot but by no means a lock.

ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT:  15%

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

May 12, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Phil Kessel (81) celebrates his goal with teammates on the bench against the Boston Bruins during game six of the first round of the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs at the Air Canada Centre. The Maple Leafs beat the Bruins 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Leafs ended one drought by making the playoffs last season, but haven’t been to the finals since they last won the Cup – when there were still only 6 teams in the league.  The Leafs have spent money and are a cap team, but when will they take the step to contender.  They nearly pulled a big upset over the Bruins in the first round, and will probably be better for the experience.

ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT:  17%

VANCOUVER CANUCKS

May 7, 2013; San Jose, CA, USA; Vancouver Canucks celebrate after the goal by defenseman Alexander Edler (23) against the San Jose Sharks during the third period in game four of the first round of the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs at HP Pavilion. The San Jose Sharks defeated the Vancouver Canucks 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Has the window closed on the Canucks’ chances of winning?  They were the last Canadian club to reach the Finals, losing to the Bruins 2 seasons ago.  A goaltending circus followed, and they are now right back where they started.  Luongo and the Sedins are still top notch players, but the Canucks have also accrued a lot of overpaid bodies and have cap issues.

ODDS OF BREAKING THE DROUGHT:  20%