The Science (Or Lack Thereof) Of Drafting Goaltenders

When it comes to drafting goalies, there is no exact science to predict the development of an 18 year old netminder. In fact, it seems more good luck than good management when looking behind the mask.

Jun 24, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask makes a save against the Chicago Blackhawks during the second period in game six of the 2013 Stanley Cup Final at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Of the top 60 goalies in terms of wins in the NHL this past season, there were more drafted 150^th or later (or undrafted) than were first round picks. Thirteen goalies were first round picks while 21 were late picks.

Goalie	Draft #	Year	G taken before
Khabibulin	204	1992	16
Theodore	44	1994	4
Hedberg	218	1994	20
Nabokov	219	1994	21
Vokoun	226	1994	22
Giguere	13	1995	0
Biron	16	1995	1
Kiprusoff	116	1995	11
Garon	44	1996	1
Backstrom	undrafted	1996	23
Luongo	4	1997	0
Clemmensen	215	1997	16
LaBarbera	66	1998	4
McDonald	undrafted	1998	23
Anderson	77	1999	7
Miller	138	1999	16
Bryzgalov	44	2000	2
Ellis	60	2000	4
Lundqvist	205	2000	21
Fasth	undrafted	2000	32
Hiller	undrafted	2000	32
Budaj	63	2001	5
Anderson	73	2001	6
Emery	99	2001	9
Smith	161	2001	19
Niemi	undrafted	2001	33
Lehtonen	2	2002	0
Ward	25	2002	1
Gustavsson	undrafted	2002	33
Fleury	1	2003	0
Crawford	52	2003	1
Howard	64	2003	2
Halak	271	2003	26
Eliott	291	2003	28
Montoya	6	2004	0
Dubnyk	14	2004	1
Schneider	26	2004	3
Peters	38	2004	5
Khudobin	206	2004	20
Rinne	258	2004	29
Scrivens	undrafted	2004	33
Price	5	2005	0
Rask	21	2005	1
Pavelec	41	2005	4
Quick	72	2005	7
Bishop	85	2005	8
Bernier	11	2006	0
Varlamov	23	2006	2
Neuvirth	34	2006	4
Enroth	46	2006	5
Mason	69	2006	6
Reimer	99	2006	10
Bachman	120	2006	14
Johnson	125	2006	15
Bobrovsky	undrafted	2006	26
Markstrom	31	2008	2
Allen	34	2008	3
Holtby	93	2008	9
Lindback	207	2008	22
Lehner	46	2009	1

Obviously there are goalies who have come and gone in the years between Khabibulin and Lehner, but it stands to reason that longevity is a factor and the fact is, a goalie in drafted in the first round stands a better chance of not making it than making it. Not that the same doesn’t hold true for other position players, but it seems like taking a goalie in the first round is an incredible gamble.

Less than half of the goalies taken in the first round between 1992 and 2009 (20 of 43) played any significant NHL time and even fewer were impact goalies. I would provide a number but it would be purely subjective as to what constitutes an “impact goalie”.

YR	Goalies in 1st Rd	Signif Playing Time
2009	0	0
2008	2	0
2007	0	0
2006	4	2
2005	2	2
2004	4	2
2003	1	1
2002	3	2
2001	4	1
2000	2	1
1999	3	0
1998	2	0
1997	4	1
1996	1	0
1995	4	4
1994	4	3
1993	3	1
1992	0	0

However, it could be getting better. Between 2002 and 2006, 9 of 14 first round goalies have had significant playing time. Still, it is a guessing game rather than an exact science, no matter what the scouting community would have you believe.

This year, there is only one goalie, Zachary Fucale from the Halifax Mooseheads, who is a consensus first round pick. Does the past history of goaltending question marks mean that his stock might drop and he would be taken later than he should? Or does it mean that since he is a consensus first round pick that he is clearly the best goalie available and thus his stock might rise.

We will find out this afternoon.

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