Well, we will start our breakdown of the series with the factor that is the most important aspect, and in many cases the battle that wins most series – the battle between the pipes.

May 5, 2013; Ottawa, ON, CAN; Ottawa Senators goalie Craig Anderson (41) makes a save on a shot from Montreal Canadiens right wing Brian Giont (21) in the third period in game three of the first round of the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs at Scotiabank Place. The Senators defeated the Canadiens 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

OTTAWA

Craig Anderson has been arguably the best goalie in the league this season, and if not for the ankle injury that forced him to miss a large chunk of the season he would have been a Vezina Trophy nominee, and probably the outright winner.  That success carried over to the playoffs, where Anderson single-handedly won a couple of games for the Senators, while in the other games he kept his team in the game until Ottawa’s offense kicked into gear. The series win against Montreal was huge for Anderson, as it was his first playoff series victory at any level.

In the event something did happen to Anderson and he either got injured or hit a slump, the Senators are more than confident playing in front of Robin Lehner, Anderson’s backup.  Lehner is a Calder Cup Champion and MVP from Binghamton’s title run in 2011, so he has the pedigree and the mentality to succeed if he were called upon.

March 30, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Tomas Vokoun (92) is greeted by goalie Marc-Andre Fleury (29) after Vokoun shutout the New York Islanders at the CONSOL Energy Center. The Pittsburgh Penguins won 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

PITTSBURGH

Marc-Andre Fleury has been an enigma in the playoffs since the Penguins won the Stanley Cup in 2009.  Since that victory, Fleury is 14-16 in 30 playoff games, with a 3.16 GAA and .881 SP.  After a subpar first round series in 2012, Fleury’s leash was pretty short heading into the first round this season.  After booting the puck around for 4 games and going 2-2, Fleury was replaced by Tomas Vokoun for games 5 and 6.

Vokoun was brought in for this exact reason, and so far he has done the job.  After posting a shutout in his first playoff game since 2007 in game 5, he kept the Penguins in game 6′s OT contest that eliminated the Islanders. Vokoun, despite being a 14 year NHL veteran, has only played 13 career playoff games.  He has a 5-8 record, with most of those games coming as a member of the Predators.

ADVANTAGE:  Senators

If Vokoun starts the series, and there is no reason to think that he won’t, the pressure will be on him, because although they would never say it publicly, I don’t think there is much confidence in Fleury’s ability at the moment.  If Fleury gets into the net, the Penguins are in trouble.

Ottawa has no question marks in net, and they know what they are going to get from Anderson.    I don’t think you can say the same about the Pittsburgh tandem.

CHECK OUT THE COMPARISON OF THE SENATORS AND PENGUINS DEFENSEMEN and FORWARDS

# Returnees – 6 – Dougie Hamilton, Scott Harrington, Mark Scheifele, Boone Jenner, Ryan Strome, Jonathan Huberdeau

Probable Lineup

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau – Ryan Nugent – Hopkins – Mark Scheifele

Jonathan Drouin – Ryan Strome – Brett Ritchie

Phillip Danault – Boone Jenner – Ty Rattie

JC Lipon – Mark MacNeil – Anthony Camara

Nathan MacKinnon

Defense

Scott Harrington – Dougie Hamilton

Tyler Witherspoon – Morgan Rielly

Griffin Reinhart – Xavier Ouellet

Ryan Murphy

Goaltenders

Malcolm Subban

Jordan Binnington

Jake Paterson

Missing Notables – Ryan Murray would have been a top defenseman but was injured prior to the tournament.  Charles Hudon was a favorite of Coach Steve Spott’s but a back injury forced him out of the lineup last week and he was replaced by MccNeill.

Watch For – Drouin made the team as a 17 year old and has moved up to the second line on the depth chart.  Both he and Halifax linemate MacKinnon could be top 3 picks in the next NHL Entry draft.  Drouin has seen his stock skyrocket in the last couple of months and it is not inconceivable that Drouin could turn what was once a two horse race into a three horse racefor the #1 ranking (along with American Seth Jones).

Prediction – Although the performance during the pre-tournament games was underwhelming at best, Canada has demonstrated the penchant for coming up big at the right time.  The key will be the ability of either Subban or Binnington to be the clutch goalie that Mark Visentin was unable to be over the last couple of years.  Also, discipline was a problem early on for this team, and they need to quickly realize that they aren’t in Canada anymore and the games are called differently.

The schedule lines up favorably in some respects, as their opponents get progressively tougher as they go along.  After opening up Boxing Day against the Germans, Canada plays Slovakia on the 28th.   Then the schedule gets very difficult as they play the US and Russia on back to back nights, Dec 29th and 30th.

With the offensive firepower, especially on the top two lines, Canada should be able to score against most teams in the tournament.  Staying out of penalty trouble and allowing their top players to get regular ice time at even strength will be important, especially against the US and Russia.  While getting first in their pool and a bye to the semifinals would help their cause and give them extra rest, this is one year where that isn’t vital.  With perhaps the three strongest teams in the field in their pool, a quarterfinal game shouldn’t be the end of the world if they finish second.  A third place finish would likely set up a quarterfinal with either Finland or Sweden, which they would rather avoid.

I don’t expect Canada to win their group, and I expect this team will have to take the tough road.  However, they are skilled and talented enough to make the gold medal game, most likely against the Russians.  And it would be unpatriotic of me to think that Canada can’t beat Russia, even on their own turf.