The Methot Effect: Erik Karlsson’s Game Bouncing Back, Notes On February

Here’s some notes on February, an interesting month for the Ottawa Senators. We saw Andrew “the hamburglar” Hammond get his first chance at a few NHL starts and an interesting little run towards the end of the month, resulting in 5 consecutive wins.

Erik Karlsson has really stepped up his game, as he nears the top of the NHL’s defensive scorers list. More on that below.

PLAYOFF CHANCES

While the Senators chances took a hit today with Bruins and Panthers wins, it’s clear to see how this western conference road trip and Andrew Hammond‘s emergence has boosted the Senators closer to a playoff spot.

Ottawa’s chances currently sit at 23% as Ottawa is again likely to be caught in the “mediocre” range at season’s end.

Looking at the graph, we see Ottawa’s playoff chances did sit as high as 80% at one point this year. That led to a free-fall after some nice early play did not continue. Now, with Marc Methot back and Erik Karlsson at the top of his game, the team is rolling.

Ottawa’s playoff odds were down to 2.8%, as they sat 26th overall in league standings not too long ago.. It’s an interesting storyline to follow for now, but if this team remains hot and goes on a run of about 13-5-4, they’ll have a greater than 50% chance at the post-season.

"NOTE: The Senators are set to miss the playoffs for two consecutive years for the first time since 1996. It’s a down time in the Franchise’s history, and with a transition still in place; this Senators team will be an interesting one to follow in upcoming years."

MARC METHOT’S IMPORTANCE

February saw a big item crossed off the list for Bryan Murray and Sens management. The signing of Marc Methot re-assured Ottawa’s faith in the 29-year-old defender as his importance and full-time lineup presence certainly impacted the Sens success this month.

Since Methot’s return, we’ve seen an Erik Karlsson we haven’t seen all year.

After hovering around the 5-7 spot amongst defensive scoring leaders, Karlsson is now #2 with 2 games in hand and being 1 point back of P.K. Subban and Mark Giordano.

It was Karlsson’s 5v5 production that was killing him. He had averaged around 1.0 p/60 for most of the season, and since Methot’s return (around the lowest peak on the graph), his P/60 @5v5 has jumped quite a bit.

Karlsson had 12 points in 13 February appearances, and has averaged 0.96 PPG since January 1st. Despite the shortened playing time this season with Methot, Marc has already become Karlsson’s most used defensive partner with over 300 minutes of 5v5 action together already. During that time Karlsson has had more 5v5 points when he’s with Methot than with any other skater.

There is certainly something about that duo that works. Each benefits tremendously from each other as through 300 minutes of TOI the duo average a CF% of over 55.

GOALTENDING DUO

Andrew Hammond has now had four consecutive starts, whether it’s the team playing well in front of him or Hammond making the key saves, or a combination of both… something has worked out.

It’s safe to say Andrew Hammond will cool off at some point and when he does, Ottawa should have Craig Anderson back and healthy ready to help with the playoff run.

Robin Lehner‘s status still remains unknown, however that head collision with Clarke MacArthur didn’t look pretty as both players may be out for quite a while.

Next: Playoffs? Is It Time To Believe?

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