Ottawa Senators Playoff Hopes, Is It Time To Believe?

By Trevor Shackles | Feb 27, 2015

Last Monday when the Ottawa Senators lost to the Carolina Hurricanes 6-3 and Robin Lehner left the game with an injury, the Senators chances of making the playoffs sat at an abysmal 4.24%. Even a few weeks before that, that number was at 2.03% after a loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Safe to say, almost all Ottawa fans were wanting the team to tank to get a high draft pick, as the playoffs were a pipe dream.

Not only were the Senators 10 points out of a playoff spot last Monday (with a game in hand), they were also stuck with a goaltending duo of Andrew Hammond and Chris Driedger. Neither of them had started in the NHL, and it looked like the perfect opportunity to fall further in the standings.

In fact, the opposite happened. In the four games since, the Senators have played their best hockey of the year and Andrew “The Hamburglar” Hammond has been a saviour. Of course it’s only been four games and that’s an extremely small sample size, but he has brought a jolt of energy to the team.

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His back to back shutouts against the Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings on back to back nights was nothing but spectacular. Although Hammond’s future is probably non-existent with Ottawa in the NHL long-term, he has held his own while Craig Anderson and Lehner attempt to return from injury.

It’s funny how much four wins can do to a team. All of a sudden, the team sits just five points back of the Boston Bruins for the final playoff spot, and have a game in hand. Furthermore, the Senators still have two more games against the Bruins later on (both at home). However, the Florida Panthers and Philadelphia Flyers are in between the two, making it harder to make the playoffs.

And while two teams sit ahead of Ottawa before Boston, they both have played two and three more games, respectively. So Ottawa’s playoff chances now? 23.25%. It’s certainly not great, but it’s remarkable how far they have come in the past couple weeks. Last night’s win against the Kings was their biggest increase in percentage, going from 16.23% to 23.25%.

Feb 21, 2015; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Ottawa Senators goalie Andrew Hammond (30) makes a save on a shot from Florida Panthers right wing Tomand Kopecky (82) in the third period at the Canadian Tire Centre. The Senators defeated the Panthers 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

This recent mini-surge has got many (including me) questioning whether Ottawa legitimately has a shot at making it. Of course a less than 1/4 chance is not great, but a couple more wins can make many more people believe. I’ve been having an internal debate about whether I should want the team to keep tanking or whether I should cheer them on, hoping to see some playoff games.

The optimist in me wants to believe, but it is hard to see this team beating out the Bruins. Also, if they do fail to make it but continue to win at a decent pace, they will end up around 9th spot, and have a draft pick around 10-14. That is the absolute worst place to be, as you don’t get the rewards of making the playoffs or a high pick. That’s why it’s partially hard to cheer them on right now.

At the same time, it’s hard not to want to see your team in the playoff push. It would be amazing to play the Montreal Canadiens in the first round, as they would legitimately have a shot to beat them. It’s odd to consider that the Bruins are only +6 in goal differential, and the Senators are +11. Also, they’ve scored nine fewer goals than Ottawa in one more game. Perhaps this isn’t the powerhouse Bruins that we’re used to.

Are the playoffs a possibility this year? Amazingly, yes. But it would be foolish to expect them to

It’s extremely hard for me to choose what “side” I’m on right now, but a four out of six points on the rest of this road trip will make me believe. On the other hand, two or fewer points will make me go back to wanting a higher pick. But beyond what fans want, are the playoffs actually possible? Boston is on pace for 92 points, so I will put that as the threshold. To get to 92, Ottawa has to go 14-7-2. That seems quite doable.

However, according to sportsclubstats, 92 points would only give Ottawa a 47.2% chance to make it. Three more points at 95 gives them an 80% chance, and 97 gives them a 93% chance. 80% is a pretty safe bet, so to get there the Senators need to go 15-5-3. That would be incredibly tough, but a few more straight wins, and something like 12-5-3 isn’t too hard.

Ottawa’s schedule also isn’t too daunting:

12 of last 20 games are at home. Half of those games are vs non-playoff teams + 2 against Bruins. Only games vs West are CGY and SJ at home.
— Tyler Ray (@DefenseMinister) February 27, 2015

So it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Ottawa finds themselves in the playoffs by mid-April, which is astounding considering their position at the beginning of the month.

While I want to believe and I want the Senators to make the playoffs, it’s easy to see this streak derailing as well. I think some fans need to temper their expectations. A loss against the Sharks is actually likely, and that could be the beginning of another descent. Similar things happened last year where it seemed like a long streak was coming, and it just never happened.

Are the playoffs a possibility this year? Amazingly, yes. But it would be foolish to expect them to. The odds are still very against them, and they need to play their best hockey of the year for the next 23 games. But a few more wins for the Hamburglar on this road trip and things look a lot easier.

It’ll be interesting to see where this team goes, as they have the potential to go on a run here.