Checking In On Predictions For Hoffman, Stone And Pageau
Prior to the NHL season I made predictions related to the performance of several Ottawa Senators players. These predictions were based off Projecting To NHL information provided by Behind The Net. I decided to check in with the projections I made to see how accurately they have held up. Here are the predictions I made at the beginning of the year.
| Name | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
| Hoffman | 82 | 22 | 27 | 49 |
| Stone | 82 | 15 | 26 | 41 |
| Pageau | 82 | 16 | 19 | 35 |
Above are the predictions I made. The basis for these predictions are done off players points per game in the AHL. The article I linked above displays the typical stat drop off from AHL to NHL. Below are the actual results of what the players have for points as well as where my predictions state they should be at this time of year. The first chart shows the players actual stats.
| Name | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
| Hoffman | 48 | 17 | 11 | 28 |
| Stone | 49 | 12 | 17 | 29 |
| Pageau | 21 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Below are where the players “should” be based off the formula I used to predict their stats for the season.
| Name | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
| Hoffman | 48 | 13 | 16 | 29 |
| Stone | 49 | 9 | 16 | 25 |
| Pageau | 21 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
The interesting thing about these predictions is how strikingly accurate they have been. In terms of goals and assists they have not been spot on, but the article I referenced did the prediction off points per games. I initially chose to add in a prediction for goals and assists to make things more interesting. In terms of points per game the predictions are all ridiculously accurate. PPG represents PPG.
| Player Name | Real PPG | Predicted PPG |
| Hoffman | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| Stone | 0.59 | 0.5 |
| Pageau | 0.38 | 0.42 |
Predicting a players performance based off their AHL Points Per Game is clearly a viable method. I predicted Mike Hoffman to have a good season and he has. If you analyze Hoffman’s contribution to this team with advanced stats he has had an even more impressive season. Hoffman has scored 16 of his 17 goals at even strength.
Mark Stone has the 2nd most even strength goals on the team with 10. I examined Pageau’s stats from December 8th on. The day Dave Cameron took over.
Since then Jean-Gabriel Pageau has been used in a 3rd and 4th line checking role. He has been a 53.9 faceoff man and has a 49% CF%, with a -3.6 Corsi Rel. I believe this is not bad considering he is primarily used in a defensive role. He has primarily played with Milan Michalek and Alex Chiasson.
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It is promising to see such great production from Stone and Hoffman. These players have inspired me to examine another player on the Senators… Curtis Lazar. My next article will be examining WHL Centres. I look back at the last ten years of centres drafted from the WHL and try to figure out if the Senators should have had Lazar spend the year with the big club or should have sent him back to Junior. The Senators should do what they can to lock up Stone and Hoffman. The two players have been some of the few positives in an extremely bleak Senators season.
Stats Courtesy of http://www.stats.hockeyanalysis.com and http://www.war-on-ice.com