Milan Michalek: The Forgotten Man

By Trevor Shackles | Jan 16, 2015

Three seasons ago, Milan Michalek lead the Ottawa Senators in scoring, with 35 goals and 25 assists. He was 27 at the time, and there was some hope that he would turn into a perennial 30+ goal scorer on the top line with Jason Spezza. Things were looking up for the young team, and Michalek was a big part of the team.

However, fast forward to present day, and he’s almost non-existent on the Senators. As of today, he has 5 goals and 8 assists in 39 games, and 3 of those goals are on the power play. He does have 4 points in his last 3 games, but only his two assists from last game are at even strength. His production has taken a huge drop-off, and he hardly brings anything to the team.

In the whole league, Michalek ranks 320th/335 forwards in points/60 (at 5 on 5) with a measly 0.68. That mark is below guys like Erik Condra, Cody McLeod, and Ryan Reaves. Furthermore, he was lower on that list before last night when he recorded two assists. He’s not exactly in elite company. He has produced well on the power play, with 5.76 points/60 (25th overall), but the fact that he has been successful there is more indicative of the players he is with like Erik Karlsson and Bobby Ryan.

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The second most productive player on the man advantage for Ottawa has been David Legwand, but there is no way that Michalek/Legwand are superior players than Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman, Bobby, Ryan, et al. For comparison, Hoffman has zero points on the power play, but of course he is due for his fair share of points while he is out there (if he ever is).

Some people might point to poor luck for Michalek this season, but that’s not exactly valid. His shooting percentage this year is only 7.6%, well below his career mark of 12%. However, his percentages the last three seasons have been 6.9%, 10.1%, and 7.6%, respectively. He is on the wrong side of 30, so perhaps his skill-set is simply diminishing. I would think he might get a few more goals here and there to end up shooting between 8-9%, but it’s not as if he will score 20+ goals.

His underlying numbers aren’t that great. His corsi ranks 11th/20 on the team, but it isn’t great at 48.3%. Also, his corsi relative sits at -0.9%. He isn’t getting favourable zone usages with the fourth highest defensive zone start and the third lowest offensive zone start, but that isn’t a good enough excuse to explain his lack of production.

It’s clear that Michalek has taken a turn for the worst, and his value as a player in the starting lineup has to be questioned if he keeps it up. In his four years with San Jose, he put up 55+ points three times, but in Ottawa he has only done that once in the 2011-12 season. He just turned 30 in December, but a player like him will not age well. He has had a plethora of injuries in his career, and I honestly can’t see him playing past 35. Even if he did, he would not be effective.

He has become more of a fourth liner than anything

Essentially the one thing he still does have is his speed. I’m sure he’s not quite as fast as he was a few years ago, but it’s still useful. I always recognize his good hard back-checks, and it’s surprising to see that it’s Michalek. However, despite his speed, he doesn’t have a whole lot else.

He has good hands and a good shot, but nowadays those only show up every so often, and not enough for him to be effective. He has almost never been in the top six for Ottawa this season, and he has become more of a fourth liner than anything.

Despite all the red flags regarding his declining point production, age, and long list of injury history, Ottawa gave him a ludicrous contract in the summer. So why then did the Senators give him that contract in the summer? In no way am I giving them an excuse, but I do understand their point of view.

They had lost Spezza and Hemsky at the time, and the optics of losing Michalek too (a whole line) would not have looked good. However, if there were people looking closer at the situation, then maybe they could have seen this coming. It would have looked even better for the Senators if they had let Michalek walk, then see him struggle elsewhere and they would get to justify not signing him.

The contract for him was not bad when it was signed, but now it looks even worse

The team does this with players like Chris Phillips, Chris Neil, Colin Greening, and others as they re-sign them just so it looks good that the team retains its players. The thing with that is, most (not all) of those players aren’t very good NHL players. With a little more research, I feel like this situation with Michalek would have never happened.

The contract for him was not bad when it was signed, but now it looks even worse. He still has two seasons left, and $4 million for a budget team is a big deal. If they had let him walk, that $4 million could have been put to good use on defense. Also, it’s not as if there are no replacements for him. Perhaps Matt Puempel or Shane Prince would be given a shot. Instead, a declining expensive veteran is on the teams third and fourth lines just to put up around 10 goals.

It’s a sad tale for Michalek, and I do feel bad for him. I always liked him as a player earlier on, but he’s lost his touch. I could see him putting up one more solid season before he’s done, but as of now he is of little use to the Senators. If there’s an opportunity to move him at the deadline, I’m all for it.

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