The Ottawa Senators: Fun With Numbers
The Ottawa Senators are off to an impressive start. They are 7-4-3. Not shabby for a team that many experts predicted would not make the playoffs. The Senators have played fourteen games thus far. What has the team done well? Who has played well? These questions are ones that must be analyzed and answered.
Outshot? No Problem…
The Senators have won seven games so far this season. In those seven wins they have been outshot six times. The lone time the Senators we’re not outshot was when they tied the Detroit Red Wings in shots during a 3-1 game the Senators won. The Senators have seven losses on the season (four in regulation, three in overtime or the shootout). The Senators have been outshot in five of their seven losses. The Senators have lost two games in which they had more shots (albeit by a small margin) than the other team. The Senators have been outshot 11 out of 14 games.
How are they winning?
One of the keys to winning a hockey game is the offensive side of play. Puck possession, capitalizing on power plays, goal scoring, etc; The Senators average 2.64 goals a game, good enough for sixteenth place in the league. The Senators have had a fairly average output in terms of goals. The best team in terms of goal scoring is the Pittsburgh Penguins who score 4.15 goals a game. The worst team in terms of goal scoring is the Buffalo Sabers who score 1.12 goals a game. The Senators are tenth in terms of goals against. They have only given up 2.28 goals a game. The best team in the league in terms of goals against is the Chicago Blackhawks at 1.86 goals a game. The worst team is the Columbus Blue Jackets who sit at 3.64 goals against per game. So have the Senators been playing good defense and good offense? Have the Senators been blessed with over performances from their goaltenders?
Luck? Skill?
The Ottawa Senators goaltenders have been nothing short of spectacular.
Craig Andersoncurrently leads the NHL in save percentage. Anderson has an amazing .951 save percentage. Craig Anderson has provided the Senators two shutouts in his eight games played. Craig Anderson posted a shutout in a game against the Minnesota Wild where the Senators we’re outshot 35-17.
Robin Lehnerhas provided solid goaltending as well. His numbers are not as impressive as Anderson’s but are still very good. Anderson has been the more consistent of the two. Lehner has been able to deliver solid performances while facing large amounts of shots. Lehner had to make thirty eight saves in a game against the Tampa Bay Lightning! The Senators goalies have played well even with mediocre support in front of them. Ottawa’s goalies rank 2nd in the league with a .938 save percentage. The league average for team save percentage is .919. If the Senators had an average NHL save percentage they would have given up 8 more goals this season. Eight more goals would change their goal stats drastically. The Senators currently have 38 goals for and 32 goals against. With a .919 save percentage the stat would change to 38 for and 40 against. It is hard to win hockey games when the other teams score more goals.
What does this all mean?
In five on five play the Senators are 26th in the league with a 47.29 Corsi percentage. Corsi represents shot attempts. Shots that miss the net, hit the net, blocked shots, any shot attempt taken is accounted for in Corsi. Five on five play is good to analyze as it has the largest sampling of data and is not biased by man advantages. The Senators are typically out shot and out possessed in five on five play. They typically give up 44.5 shot attempts a game while registering 39.92 of their own. In terms of traditionally counted shots (shots that hit the goalie or go in the net) they have registered 430 and given up 492 (during all strength of play). The Senators need to start possessing the puck more, scoring more goals, and generally playing better hockey. The Senators have been the beneficiaries of great play from their goaltenders. How long can they hold the second best save percentage in the NHL? If the Senators goaltending slips and the rest of the team does not provide more support the outlook is gloomy. Anderson’s career save percentage as an NHL goalie is .915, how long can it stay at .951? Next time I will be analyzing Senators forwards and defenseman. I will try to pin point players who have made a positive and negative contribution to the Senators play.