By The Numbers – How Hard It Would Be For The Ottawa Senators To Miss The Playoffs
So with the playoffs firmly in the near future, many Sens fans are still gripping wondering if the Senators will be able to “hang on” to a playoff position.
Ottawa hopes to put the playoff chase behind them and focus on catching the Bruins and Canadiens. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
Well, I am here to allay those fears and show you exactly why.
There are essentially 9 teams that are in the mix for a playoff spot between 5-12th place, and included Winnipeg as well, as they are in the mix as the division leader. I have eliminated Philly, Tampa Bay and Florida for obvious reasons.
The Senators currently sit with the 5th seed, with 40 points. At the beginning of the season I had 56 points targeted to make the playoffs, while most people think 52 will be enough. So for the purposes of this exercise, I will split the difference and use 54 as the target.
So here is the math, showing what each team has to do to reach the 54 point target:
| TEAM | CURRENT PTS | PTS TO 54 | GMS LEFT | REQ’D RECORD | WIN %REQ’D | WIN % TO DATE |
| Ottawa | 40 | 14 | 16 | 7-9 | 0.438 | 0.625 |
| Toronto | 37 | 17 | 16 | 8-8 | 0.500 | 0.578 |
| New Jersey | 36 | 18 | 16 | 9-7 | .563 | .563 |
| Winnipeg | 36 | 18 | 15 | 9-6 | .600 | .545 |
| NY Rangers | 33 | 21 | 17 | 10-6-1 | .618 | .532 |
| Carolina | 32 | 22 | 18 | 11-7 | .611 | .533 |
| Washington | 31 | 23 | 16 | 11-4-1 | .718 | .484 |
| NY Islanders | 31 | 23 | 16 | 11-4-1 | .718 | .484 |
| Buffalo | 30 | 24 | 16 | 12-4 | .750 | .469 |
So as you can see, while there is a possiblitly that there could be a change at the bottom of the playoff picture, for Ottawa to miss the playoffs there would have to be a monumental failure in their game, and some other teams would have to play out of their minds to catch up.
Keeping in mind that these teams all play each other, and even with three point games there is still almost no chance that the Senators get passed.
In my opinion, an Ottawa win in regulation and a Toronto loss in regulation today virtually assures Ottawa of the 5th seed, and they can turn their attention to catching either the Bruins or the Canadiens to get home ice in the inevitable first round matchup with whoever doesn’t win the division. There is still an outside shot that they can catch both and get into the #2 seed, but it would take both of the teams in front of them having a collapse in the standings as well.
So rest assured, the Senators are in the playoffs, just like I called almost two weeks ago.