Are There Any RFA’s Worth An Offer Sheet?

PLEASE NOTE:  THE COMPENSATION CHART LISTED BELOW IS FROM THE ACTUAL CBA, BUT IS UPDATED ANUALLY.  THE MOST RECENT CHART CAN BE FOUND HERE. THE  ARGUEMENTS IN THE POST REMAIN THE SAME, BUT THE DOLLAR VALUES ARE DIFFERENT THAN I PUBLISHED ORIGINALLY.  THANK YOU TO “ANOTHERSENSFAN” FOR POINTING OUT MY OVERSIGHT.

Yesterday I looked at the list of UFA players coming on the market, or more accurately the lack thereof.  That being said, another option facing General Managers is making an offer sheet to a restricted free agent.  Since the lockout in 2004-05, there have only been 6 offer sheets accepted around the NHL: Kesler, Bakes, Vanek, Penner, Bernier and Hjalmarsson.  Of those, only Penner’s 5 year, $21.5 million deal was not matched, and the compensation for that signing was 1st, 2nd & 3rd round draft picks.  The other 5 offer sheets were all matched.

From the NHL/NHLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement, the compensation required for signing Restricted Free Agents is as follows:

GROUP 2 COMPENSATION CHART
OFFER SHEET                                                              COMPENSATION
$660,000 or below                                                     None
Over $660,000 to $1 million                                 3rd Round
Over $1 million to $2.0 million                             2nd Round
Over $2.0 million to $3.0 million                        1st Round and 3rd Round
Over $3.0 million to $4.0 million                        1st Round, 2nd Round, and 3rd Round
Over $4.0 million to $5.0 million                        Two 1st Rounds, 2nd Round, and 3rd Round
Over $5 million                                                             Four 1st Rounds

So with that chart in mind, here is a look at the list of top Restricted Free Agents:

Steven Stamkos, TB

Zach Parise, NJ

Brandon Dubinsky, NYR

Devon Setoguchi, SJ

Shea Weber, NAS

Drew Doughty, LA

Ladislav Smid, EDM

Drew Stafford, BUF

Zach Bogosian, WIN

Brad Marchand, BOS

Michael Frolik, CHI

Jakub Voracek, CLB

Nicklas Bergfors, FLA

Keith Yandle, PHX

TJ Oshie, STL

Luke Schenn, TOR

Of these players listed, the ones in BOLD would most likely come with the maximum compensation for values over $5 million per year.  Are any of them worth the hassle of making up an offer sheet?

Signing a free agent to an offer sheet usually comes with a fear of retribution when your own players move into restricted free agency.  There is a reason why only 6 offers have been made in 6 years.  Also, any players in that echelon like Stamkos or Parise are in all likelihood going to be matched by their teams anyway.  So even if you think the compensation is worth the effort, you still have other obstacles to overcome.

The alternative method of obtaining the rights to a restricted free agent is to trade for the rights of said player.  If a team can’t come to an agreement with its RFAs, they may be willing to deal the player for the right price.  This doesn’t happen often as teams are not forced to move the player and usually come to an agreement with them before the season begins.  The problem also arises that you then have to come to an agreement with that player.

So if you were Ottawa GM Bryan Murray, would you forsake your next 4 first round picks in order to add Steven Stamkos or Zach Parise to the Senators lineup?  Does adding one of those star players to the current roster make them a deep playoff team for the next 4 years, making the compensation late first rounders?  Does the fear of retribution (with Erik Karlsson one year away from RFA himself) scare you away from stepping up and making the offer?

All valid questions, and although losing Karlsson would be tragic, Ottawa would still have the right to match any offer for him, with cap space available.  New Jersey and Tampa both have salary cap issues, with New Jersey near the anticipated cap and Tampa with a lot of roster spots to fill and not an abundance of cap space.  They may not be able to match the $6 or $7 million offers that may come the way of these star players.

Ottawa could also go for one of the lesser-tier players like Oshie or Stafford to fill some of the scoring void, but although the compensation wouldn’t be as high as the superstars, the same risks are present.

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Thanks for reading and as always, comments are welcomed.

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